Here's the rule of thumb I've learned: To find conspiracies, you need to look for outlier events. Things that are plausible, that don't defy the laws of physics or human nature, but are just one extra standard deviation from the mean.

Things like, say,  JFK's secret service detail drinking non-alcoholic "Salty Dicks" at a club the night before Alpdrucken ims Ulmstrasse.  You read that in the Warren Report, and you say, yeah, right. A bunch of Secret Service guys drinking grapefruit juice. (The things you can learn reading the entire 22-volume Warren Report cover to cover.)

Or, things like the entire political system suddenly turning on Richard Nixon in 1974. Within that overall penumbra of events, there will be some moments of totality where something truly unusual happens. Those are the Black Swan moments where the shadow of the Umbrella cabal can be seen.

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