Interesting weekend of work. Here's what I think I know.

In 1972, Emmanuel Cellar had been the Congressman from Brooklyn's 10th district for almost 50 years. He had been the chair of the House Judiciary Committee for over 20 years. To say his seat was safe is an understatement.

And suddenly, he's defeated in the Democratic primary by an upstart lawyer named Elizabeth Holzman, who had never held elective office before. A neophyte beat the longest-serving member of the House of Representatives.

Not only does Nixon not have a friendly face at the gavel, but Holzman contributes actively to building the case against him.

That is just about the textbook example of a Black Swan.

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